The Likelihood of a Potential Future Conflict Between the United States and China - Free Essay

The article by Graham Allison, "The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China headed for war?" was written in 2015. It focused on the heat that emanated from China as a rising power as it confronted the United States. The perceived war between China and the United States will be fatal and might affect the global economy since they control the world's economy. For instance, World War I was inconceivable since it created a significant impact on Europe, such as dissolving the Austro-Hungarian Empire, leading to the death of the Kaiser, and the Bolsheviks overthrew the Russian tsar. Most individuals across the globe wondered if China and the United States could escape the Thucydides Trap. Whenever a rising power tends to rival a ruling power, the consequences are fatal, and economies start to decline. The war between the United States and China is not possible, but with the Thucydides’s Trap, it can lead to extensive conflicts. Therefore, due to the previous wars' impact, this paper will focus on whether the article by Graham Allison," The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China headed for war?" provides the proper perspective on the war between the United States and China.

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The war between China and the United States is being stirred by the knowledge the Chinese have of being humiliated and powerless. The treatment China received from the superpowers left a significant mark, making it focus on being a superpower. Since China has a strong economic impact and military strengths, Beijing saw it as the appropriate time to demonstrate the country is a rising power and cannot be pushed by the United States (Allison Para 4). China has acquired the market of its industrial products worldwide, making it feel like a superpower. Also, Chinese specialized civilization with an outlook and culture different from the Western world resulting in its clash with the United States. Therefore, through the rapid growth of the Chinese economy, military strength, and culture, China has developed a sense of entitlement and grievances, focusing on leading international systems.

Consequently, China is viewed to be a rival of the United States as it challenges the American predominance threatening its role since the 1940s. The Thucydides Trap arose from the Greek historians' elaboration during the Peloponnesian war (Allison Para 3). Allison uses Athens and Sparta's case to show how a rising power challenges a position occupied by the dominant country. Due to the United States' current position in the international hierarchy, it can fall into the Thucydides Trap, as evidenced in the early 1990s. The struggles proceeded until President Barack Obama and the People's Republic president of China Xi Jinping concluded that they would not be trapped.

The Greek historian's primary aim was to protect his reputation since the Thucydides trap resulted from the Athens of their alliances' mismanagement. The Anglo-German naval arms race preceded the First World War, and the origin of this war emanated from the disputes between Serbia and Austria. Germany feared Russia as a rising power, and the two states' failure to act might have resulted in war in the future. Therefore, the avoidance of the war during the cold war era was due to the emergence of nuclear weapons. The use of nuclear weapons discouraged the United States and China from getting into the war as it can lead to severe damages stirring wars from other countries.

Allison has elaborated on the relationship existing between the Thucydides Trap and the factors leading to war among different countries. The author of the book analyzed different cases related to the Thucydides Trap, and within the five hundred years, he noticed that few cases resulted in peaceful transitions. Allison noted that the existing Sino-United States relationship had various features that led to Thucydides Trap through comparisons in political, economic, military, and cultural aspects of China and the United States. The cultural differences, economic competition, Korean Peninsula crises, and the Sea Disputes created challenges on the Sino- United States relations. China was part of a complicated set of power relationships, and in case the Thucydides Trap focused on a persistent phenomenon, it can be wise to address the Sino-Indian tensions. China Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has continued to increase since the 1980s, where China's GDP was ten percent compared to the American GDP (Allison Para 19). Therefore, Allison believed that the war between the two states was based on the strategic choices that are made by the United States and China. Leaders in both states can develop a mutual understanding with each other, escaping the Thucydides' Trap.

In 2014, Xi Jinping indicated that individuals in every state must work as a team to prevent Thucydides' Trap. Xi Jinping stated in his speech that the powerful states could make mistakes on the strategizing, creating the Thucydides Traps for themselves. In 2015, Barack Obama did not agree with Thucydides Trap and how it affected the relations between China and the United States (Allison Para 7). President Donald Trump has always called for cooperation between the United States and China, maintaining their differences. For instance, in 2017, seating between President Donald Trump and Xi Jinping assured the United States that it was to support China in its military affairs, the Chinese economy, and trades among its residents. In the 19th century, China was controlled by the European first imperialists and the Japanese invaders. After the communist government won in 1949, China underwent cultural and economic isolation, making it to drool into poverty.

According to Allison (para 11), Germany's rise was due to its growing economy that surpassed Britain. Germany had the strongest army, making it achieve naval supremacy that could be an objective of threatening the British Empire. In the current world, war cannot be prevented in economically independent countries by having cultural empathy between the leaders or being blood relatives (Allison para 13). In most cases, the rapid shift of a power rising nation continued to threaten the ruling states leading to the emergence of warfare. For instance, when France challenged Britain because of its dominance on its ruling in the European continent, Britain started a war that led to the destruction of Napoleon Bonaparte's fleet and used their army to defeat Spain (Allison para 15). During the war, France tried to provide an appropriate instrument that mobilized other states to support its mission. In 1868 after the Meiji Restoration, the growth of Japanese military strength and economy challenged Russian and Chinese dominance in East Asia, leading to a war that made Japan a dominant power. Therefore, the Thucydides bring the States to a powerful personality as World War I led to competing interpretations.

China's ascendance is believed to have a significant impact on the United States as the international order promotes prosperity and peace for a couple of years. China’s size is a big player in the world’s history since it rose very fast on the multiple dimensions of power. China's current reserves are higher than those of the United States since its exports, and its GDP is significantly greater. In the 1980s, the Chinese economy was lower than that of the Netherlands, and by 2014, China's economy was equal to the Dutch economy (Allison Para 20). It is worrying if the Chinese economy has surpassed that of the United States, Chinese leaders might feel the pressure of displacing the United States. Lee Kuan Yew put the Chinese odds higher than those of the United States. In the 1890s, President Theodore Roosevelt indicated that the United States could rule the world for the next century, making it an American century. According to Allison (Para 25), in 1895, the United States has declared a sovereign state since it liberated Cuba, it tried to overthrow the Mexican government, and threatened Germany and Britain to allow the American positions towards the disputes in Canada and Venezuela. In the mid-century, the United States forces intervened to settle the territorial and economic disputes in significant terms that favored the Americans. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping initiated the Chinese market growth through the hide and bide policy, where China wanted stability and accessibility to the world market. Chinese used the policy to bide people's time and hide their capabilities, thus being termed by the army as being strong before they got even (Allison Para 27). Xi Jinping, the current president of China, ended the hide and bide policy, making China a fast-growing economy that surpassed the United States.

Conclusion

The article by Graham Allison," The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China headed for war?" provides the proper perspective of the war between the United States and China. China, a fast-growing economy, has surpassed the United States, which was the worlds' dominant power. The war between the United States and China is not possible, but with the Thucydides’s Trap, it can lead to extensive conflicts. China has a strong economic impact and military strengths, and Beijing saw it as the appropriate time to demonstrate the country is a rising power and cannot be pushed by the United States. The Thucydides Trap arose from the elaboration by the Greek historians during the Peloponnesian war. Allison uses Athens and Sparta's case to show how a rising power challenges a position occupied by the dominant country. In 2014, Xi Jinping indicated that individuals in every state require to work as a team to prevent Thucydides’ Trap. Therefore, through good leadership between the United States and China, the two states have improved their economies, preventing the Thucydides Trap.

Reference

Allison, G. (2015). The Thucydides trap: are the U.S. and China headed for war?. The Atlantic, 24. Retrieved from https://www.globalstrikemedia.com/uploads/3/7/7/4/37740703/destined_for_war__can_china_and_the_united_states_escape_thucydides%E2%80%99s_trap__-_the_atlantic.pdf