The test of hypothesis as the main aim of statistics
The main aim of statistics is to test a hypothesis. A hypothesis is a guess about something in the environment around; it is a proposed reasoning given on the basis of a limited proof as the beginning point for additional investigation. When proposing a hypothesis, it is habitual to write a statement including both the independent variable and the dependent variable. Hypothesis testing in statistics is a method to test the outcome of an experiment or a survey so as to determine whether you have obtained meaningful results.
Hypothesis of the study
According to the research study, the following hypotheses were generated.
Alternative hypothesis; there exist a relationship between the large population and the increased rate in crime and social disorder in Miami FL.
Null hypothesis; there is no relationship between the large population and the increased rate in crime and social disorder in Miami FL.
Making a decision for a statistical test is independent on the problem to be answered, the structure of the data and the study design. Before the selection of a statistical test and recording of data the problem to be solved as well as the null hypothesis should be formulated (McLaughlin, 2006). The level of significance of the test must also be specified. The type of study research in this case is survey research. A survey research involves the gathering of data from a sample of the total population. Since the population of Miami FL is large, only a few people will be randomly selected to take part in the research study by giving information through filling questionnaires and interviews. One major challenge experienced when analyzing survey data is attempting to generalize the results obtained in a specific sample to the whole population. When one tries to describe a large observation using a single indicator, there is a potential risk of losing valuable details or even destroying the original data (Maxfield, 2015). Statisticians have come up with a variety of guidelines to assist in the differentiating between the results that reflect on the whole population and those that do not. These guidelines are the statistical tests and the tests of statistical significance.
Since this study is a survey and quantitative research, quantitative data collection methods will be implemented and the proposed statistical test is descriptive statistical test. Descriptive statistics are statistics which quantitatively portrays the characteristics of a collection of information. The purpose of descriptive statistics is to recapitulate a sample rather than utilize the data gathered from the sample to learn about the population that the sample represented. They assist in simplifying an enormous data in a reasonable way. Descriptive statistics are not created based on the probability theory like the inferential statistics (D’Orsogna & Perc 2015).
In descriptive statistics, there are three main characteristics focused on in a particular variable. They include; the distribution, the central tendency, and the dispersion.
The distribution is a concise presentation of the frequency of a range of values or an individual values for a variable. For example, in this research the distribution table will be used to analyze the period in which the tourists have been attacked by year, and the number of times the criminals have been re-arrested. Also, the frequency distribution table will be used to describe the gender by enlisting the number of the male and female who have been attacked in a specific period of time. The use of frequency distribution is a common method of describing a single variable. Frequency distribution can be depicted as either a graph or a table. A frequency distribution graph is commonly referred to as a bar chart or a histogram, using a histogram enables clarity and easier understanding of the frequency distribution.
A measure of central tendency is an individual value that tries to give a description of a collection of data by spotting the central point within that set of data. Measures of central tendency are sometimes referred to as measures of central location. There are three types of measures of tendency; the mean, commonly known as the average, the median and the mode. These three are justifiable measures of tendency but they are utilized under different conditions. The mean is the most common utilized method of reporting central tendency. Mean is computed by the summation of all the values in the set of data divided by the number of values in that data set. The median is the score which is located exactly in the middle of a collection of data. The median is computed by first listing all the scores in a numerical order and then spotting the score found at the center of the sample. The mode is the most frequently occurring value in the set of data. The mode is also used in categorical data. To determine the mode in a set of data, look at the most frequently appearing value in that data. The use of mean, median and mode will be applied in this research so as to understand the differences in the data collected from the sample.
Dispersion refers to the dissemination of the collection of values around the central tendency (Sampson, 2011). There are two main measures of dispersion; the standard deviation and the range. The range is computed by simply subtracting the lowest value from the highest value in the set of data. The standard deviation is a highly accurate and detailed estimation of dispersion as it avoids the exaggeration of range by the outlier. The use of the range and the standard deviation in this research study will also assist in analyzing of data and comprehension of the varying set if data.
Criteria for determining program efficacy
The ever increasing needs for accountability together with the increasing demand for evidence-based programs and policies led to the establishment of standards to identify the effectiveness of programs and policies (Eck & Spelman 2016). In this research study, the problem was the increased crime and social disorder experienced in Miami FL. The aim of the study was to find alternative ways to reduce crime in Miami FL and the proposed program was to implement close examination of the problem-oriented program (POP). Problem-oriented program is a method of analysis used by the defense forces to so as to generate the strategies that aid in the prevention and reduction of crime and social disorder. Under this program, the police the agents of police are supposed to examine the problems facing a community, look for the effective answers or solutions to these problems, and assess the impact of the implemented solutions in a systematic way. POP represents the efforts led by the police to help make a difference in the underlying state at the areas known of high level of crime, which results to the frequent repetition of the crime problems. This program also needs the police to look back into the past traditional actions and think about other potential approaches for communicating crime and disorder in the community. Problem-oriented program is one of the most utilized strategies among the progressive law enforcement agencies. Herman Goldstein was the first person to advance the POP approach and that was in 1979. He argued that the standard policing model which is mainly incident and reactive driven, needs to be substituted with an approach that is more proactive so as to identify and target problems that lead to social disorder, crime and other community issues. A basic structure for implementing POP was later created by Eck and Speck in 1987 through the use of SARA which stands for; Scanning, Analysis, Response, and Assessment model. SARA is one of the many possible methods used to implement POP in practice. The interventions of POP can assume many different methods and will differ based on the particular problem being encountered. In the first step, scanning, the police rely on several distinct sources to establish and prioritize on the possible problems linked with crime and disorder in an area. This involves the identification of the problem of concern in the area, confirming the existence of that particular problem, trying to understand the repercussions of the problem, and finally determining how frequent the problem occurs.
After identification of the problem, the next step is Analysis. This step is where the relevant data linked to the problem is established and analyzed. It also includes narrowing the scope of the problem and coming up with possible reasons as to why the problem is happening. The information gathered in this step is important as it helps in the selection of the most appropriate and effective solution to the problem which takes place in the next step. In the third step, Response, the police alongside their partners choose one or more interventions on the basis of the results gathered from the analysis step. A plan of response is outlined and it includes the following; the characteristics of each response, the specific objectives that the responses intend to achieve, and the personal accountability of the various partners included in the implementation of the process. After the selection of the process, it is implemented by the police together with their partners. Finally, the last step, Assessment, involves the evaluation of whether the chosen response was implemented in a manner that was compatible with the response plan. This step also seeks to know whether the responses were able to meet their intended objectives or not. This step therefore, includes both the process and impact evaluation components.
Based on the last step of SARA, the criteria which will be used to determine the efficacy of this program after its implementation will be to evaluate the performance information. Performance measures will be created to give signs as to whether or to what extent the program is working to achieve the expected results. Performance information is acquired by measuring the actual results of the prcloogram and then comparing these results with the expected results from the program (Reaves & Goldberg 1999). Measuring the results of the actions in relation to the purpose which they seek to accomplish has the need of developing performance indicators. An indicator is a clear measure of the results which are expected from a program (Laycock, 2000). It gives information on the degree to which an action has thrived in contributing to the intention. Indicators are either quantitative or qualitative. An indicator which is quantitative can be articulated as an individual measure or as a measure of alteration. An individual measure may be the number of people while as a degree it may show either the increase or decline in number of the crime cases. A qualitative indicator can be utilized where the quantitative indicators are not practicable (Braga & Bond 2008). For example in this research study, one cannot use a straight quantitative indicator to show the level to which the area has been made more secure through the program. However, an indirect measure, which is qualitative measure, can be utilized through the application of direct observations, surveys and more. In this research proposal, the proposed program’s efficacy will be determined by both the quantitative and qualitative indicators. In quantitative indicator, the assessment will be done to determine the whether or not the crime cases will have decreased in Miami FL. Also, the quantitative indicator will give information of the total number of crime doers arrested and re-arrested after the implementation of the program and the number of women and men offended by the crime doers. Qualitative indicators will be used through the observation where information on the extent to which Miami FL has become safer will be obtained, or the extent to which the area has become more insecure.
Braga, A. A., & Bond, B. J. (2008). Policing crime and disorder hot spots: A randomized controlled trial. Criminology, 46, 577-607.
D'Orsogna, M. R., & Perc, M. (2015). Statistical physics of crime: A review. Physics of life reviews, 12, 1-21.
Eck, J., & Spelman, W. (2016). Problem oriented policing. Washington, DC.
Laycock, G. (2000). "Scientists or Politicians: Who Has the Answer to Crime." Lecture, Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science, University College, London, April 26.
Maxfield, M. G. (2015). Basics of research methods for criminal justice and criminology. Cengage Learning
McLaughlin, E. (2006). The New Policing. London: SAGE
Reaves, B.A. and A.L. Goldberg (1999).Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics.Washington, DC: U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics
Sampson, R. J. 2011. The Community. Pp. 210-236 in Wilson, J. Q. & Petersilia, J. (Eds.). Crime and Public Policy. New York: Oxford University Press.
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