Essay Sample on Imperfect Prediction and Health Policy

Old age is associated with a weakened immune system and long periods of inactivity. Consequently, elderly people are susceptible to infections and lifestyle diseases such as arthritis and cancer. The cost of managing and treating such conditions is irrefutably expensive and requires well-executed health policies. Such policies were a significant concern to Rice and Estes, whose article on the policy issues and challenges facing the health of the elderly is a crucial predicting tool. The article has a myriad of policy issues with the primary focus of this essay being medical care needs versus supply and alternatives to institutionalization.

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Rice and Estes stipulate that between 1980 and 2000, the number of physicians will meet or exceed the expected hospital visits. The number of hospital days will amount to 351 million days while the number of beds required to meet the demand should increase by 282,163 (NHAMC Survey, 2016). However, the increasing number of elderly patients will overwhelm the number of nurses. Currently, the number of geriatric specialists is 23.3% lower than it was between 2001 and 2002 (Callahan et al., 2017). An additional 1.1 million nurses are needed to reduce the current shortage (Haddad & Tammy, 2019). In 2016, the total number of hospital visits was 36.5 million (NHAMC Survey, 2016). Lastly, as of 2019, the number of hospital beds is 931,203 (AHA.org).

Regarding alternatives to institutionalization, the authors argue that with the rising number of debilitated elderly patients and the costs of hospital care, other options will be sought. Consequently, there will be a reduction in the utilization of hospital bed with better patient outcomes and satisfaction. Currently, institutionalization depends on the type of elderly patient with those mentally challenged preferring institutional care while those with terminal cancer preferring hospice care (de Lima et al., 2018).

Most of the predictions became true. With the rise of life expectancy, the number of elderly patients with chronic diseases is on the rise. Thus, the demand has overtaken the supply as indicated by the consistently increased demand for medical personnel. Furthermore, bed spaces have also increased. Lastly, alternatives to institutionalization have improved patients' outcomes and satisfaction.

References

AHA homepage. (n.d.). AHA. Retrieved from https://www.aha.org/front

Callahan, K. E., Tumosa, N., & Leipzig, R. M. (2017). Big 'G'and little 'g'Geriatrics education for physicians. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 65(10), 2313-2317.

de Lima, A. P., Lini, E. V., & Rodrigues, M. (2018). Physical activity and cognitive health condition of institutionalized elderly in Passo Fundo-RS, Brazil. Ciencias & Cognicao, 23(1), 19-27.

Haddad, L. M., & Toney-Butler, T. J. (2019). Nursing shortage. In StatPearls [Internet]. StatPearls Publishing.

National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (2016). Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhamcs/web_tables/2016_ed_web_tables.pdf